Unfinished business of new energy automobiles

There is no doubt about the future development trend of new energy vehicles, but the current focus should be shifted from terminal subsidies to the support of new technologies at the source, and at the same time accelerate the construction of new energy vehicles supporting infrastructure, so as to form a virtuous development cycle.

Li Lijuan, a journalist for the article "Legal Person"

Recently, in order to promote the high-quality development of the new energy automobile industry, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized the New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2021? 2035 (hereinafter referred to as the "Planning") is the start-up meeting for the preparation of new energy vehicles for the next stage of China's top-level design.

Miao Wei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out that in the planning and preparation work, we should take the high-quality development of new energy vehicles as the main line, and explore a new mode of deep integration and development of new energy vehicles with energy, transportation, information and communication.

On January 29, 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other ten departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Further Optimizing Supply, Promoting Steady Growth of Consumption and Forming a Strong Domestic Market" (hereinafter referred to as the "Implementation Plan") pointed out that more measures should be taken to promote automobile consumption and better meet the travel needs of residents.

On February 26, 2019, there were 54,000 new energy indicators in the 2019 indicators of Beijing minibus. The remaining valid application codes approved by the audit continued to rotate according to the regulations. Individual new energy indicators will be used up in the first phase of the year, and nearly 390,000 people will continue to wait. New applicants may wait eight years, that is, 2027, to get the indicators.

At the same time, the new policy of new energy vehicle subsidy in 2019 is approaching promulgation, and the subsidy amount will continue to decline. However, when the policy will land and how much the subsidy amount will decline are still uncertain. While the new subsidy policy has not yet been decided, the voice of doubts about new energy vehicles is also constant. Whether it is battery continuity or battery replacement and environmental protection issues, have become the focus of news discussions.

With the continuous development of energy-saving concept, new energy vehicles with relatively clean emissions have increasingly become the mainstream of the market. However, it is too early to talk about the market prospects when the technology is not yet fully mature, the core issues such as endurance, system perfection, the lack of popularization of charging piles and excessive dependence on subsidies have not been solved.

In recent years, with the great leap forward of new energy automobiles, various policies concerning new energy automobiles have emerged frequently, and the new energy automobile market has been vigorously promoted. In addition to the subsidized advantages of new energy automotive projects, industry brands have sprung up like bamboo shoots after a spring rain. In addition to the traditional automobile manufacturers have launched new energy projects, with the development of new energy industry, new energy automobile professional brands of large and small have also been born, such as Xiaopeng, Singularity, Weima, Ranger, Weilai and so on.

However, while the new energy automobile industry is developing vigorously, their respective problems are also frequently exposed. Especially battery life and battery safety have become a sword hanging over almost all automotive enterprises.

"Legal person" reporter interviewed several new energy vehicle users at random: "I finished lifting the car, ran to the North Fourth Ring Road in the South Fourth Ring Road, the electricity is still 80%, the basic feeling is OK." "After a period of time, the frequency of charging increases, the service life of batteries decreases, and sometimes they dare not turn on the heater when they go out." "The new energy vehicle is a good substitute for walking tools, to avoid the trouble of the limit, in addition to the charging pile is difficult to find, of course, if you install the charging pile in your home, it is still possible." Users of new energy vehicles have different opinions.

The reporter interviewed a salesman of a 4S shop of Beijing Beiqi. He said, "Our price is still in accordance with the preferential plan of 2018, and may be adjusted according to the Subsidy Plan of 2019 after March. Subsidies in 2019 may be cut by 30%. If consumers want to buy cars, we will have a group buying activity at the end of February. After March, there will be no group buying activities to offset the price rise, because the overall market price of new energy vehicles is rising, not just us.

According to data from the OFweek Institute of Industry, China's new energy vehicle production in 2018 reached 1.2208 million vehicles, an increase of 50.6% over the same period last year. Among them, the output of pure electric passenger cars increased by 67.26% over the same period of last year, 255,500 plug-in hybrid electric passenger cars increased by 150.32% over the same period of last year, the output of pure electric passenger cars decreased by 4.44% over the same period of last year, the output of plug-in hybrid electric passenger cars decreased by 63.68% over the same period of last year, and the output of pure electric private cars decreased by 26.21% over the same period of last year. Production is expected to reach 1.8 million vehicles in 2019 and 2.4 million new energy vehicles in China by 2020.

In an interview with reporters, Qiu Chenyang, a researcher at PRC Puhua, said that in 2018, China's new energy automobile market developed rapidly and its technology level improved. According to the data released by the China Automobile Association, January 2018? In November, China's output of new energy vehicles was 1.0535 million, an increase of 63.63% over the same period last year. In November, the cumulative sales reached 1.0298 million vehicles, an increase of 68% over the same period last year. The data of China Ride Federation also show that in the first 11 months of 2018, the sales of new energy narrow passenger vehicles in China reached 845,000, an increase of 89.3% over the same period last year, with a strong upward trend. Vehicle observer Chen Xi also told reporters about the current sales situation of new energy vehicles: "In 2018, China's traditional automotive industry entered the first negative growth in 28 years, while the new energy automotive industry has entered a high-speed growth stage.

According to the statistics of the China Auto Association, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2018 increased by 59.9% and 61.7% respectively compared with the same period last year. It can be said that the growth rate is amazing. Zhu Luman, chief analyst of Wenjin Automobile Research, said in an interview with reporters that the sales, technology and industry structure of new energy vehicles in 2018 have changed a lot. For example, in the improvement of battery application of new energy vehicles, the government needs to improve some technical indicators of new energy vehicle batteries, including improving the endurance mileage of new energy vehicles and safety issues in the use of vehicles. Although the improvement of new energy vehicles is constantly exploring, the market sales situation is still relatively optimistic.

Speeding up the improvement of infrastructure "Compared with gasoline vehicles, the rapid development of new energy vehicles in a few years, thanks to the strong support of China's policy, as well as the huge demand for automobiles." Qiu Chenyang said in an interview with reporters about the reasons for the rapid development of new energy vehicles. Chen also believes that the new energy vehicle market has developed rapidly thanks to the state subsidy policy, local licensing restrictions and the improvement of environmental awareness of some consumers.

Zhong Jun, an insider in the industry, said in an interview with reporters that the rapid development of new energy vehicles can not be separated from the policy guidance and support at the national level; in some cities, new energy vehicles have become alternative tools for travel in order to control the environment and road congestion; people's awareness of environmental protection has been enhanced; and the breakthrough, intelligence and economy of new energy vehicles have been affected by the market. More and more attention, we see that Internet car rental platforms, such as Left, Middle and Right, Universal Car Enjoyment, have been completed in more than 70 cities throughout the country. These platforms all use new energy vehicles, which promotes the development of new energy vehicles market.

Behind the rapid development of new energy vehicles, there are also various problems. In Qiu Chenyang's view, the main problems are the endurance and battery safety. Chen also stressed to reporters that the existing problems in the field of new energy vehicles are as follows: first, the technical problems have not been solved well, such as the construction of charging piles, the worries about mileage, and so on; second, the public awareness of new energy and environmental protection needs a long process.

"Although the development of new energy vehicles has been very good, it is undeniable that there are still some doubts about the public's perception." Chen said. "With the breakthrough of battery technology, vehicle endurance will also increase. However, inadequate charging and switching infrastructure and inconsistent equipment standards of various energy supply platforms will be one of the reasons for mileage anxiety of new energy vehicles. Zhong Jun told reporters.

At present, charging piles are mostly located in the community, shopping malls, office parks and other charging parking spaces. In addition to charging charges, new energy owners also have to pay the corresponding parking fees. In addition, there is the cost of batteries, compared with the same performance of fuel vehicles, the market price does not dominate.

Zhu Luman also stressed to the "legal person" reporter that the existing problems of new energy vehicles are mainly reflected in demand, supply and policy. Especially in terms of demand, the policy requirement for environmental protection in the macro environment is becoming more and more urgent. An important starting point for the development of new energy is to solve the problem of energy dependence on oil, and the demand for urban cleanliness. Zhu Luman believes that these needs are reflected in specific consumers, and the basis for users to buy and demand is not very obvious, that is to say, the government's purpose of promoting new energy vehicles is not directly proportional to consumer demand. As an ordinary user, all kinds of technology and infrastructure need to be improved, and the advantages of new energy vehicles are not obvious compared with traditional fuel vehicles.

In 2019, the policy of subsidizing new energy vehicles will return to the market. The problem of subsidizing new energy vehicles and the impact of technological innovation on new energy vehicles have always been the focus of public opinion. In Qiu Chenyang's view, the short-term decline of subsidies may restrain the demand for new energy vehicles, promote the survival of the fittest in the market, and improve the concentration of the market.

Zhong Jun also stressed to reporters: "The state's policy of subsidizing the decline is certain, which will have a certain impact on the market in a short time, but we believe that enterprises with real innovation and technological strength will survive better and realize the intensive and efficient use of social resources." Zhu Luman also said in an interview with reporters that subsidies may reduce the sales of products and brands that are not in line with market demand, and there will be more room for development for products that are really needed in the market.

For new energy vehicles, it is mainly "three electricity": electric drive, battery and electronic control. These three aspects have different technology content and application products. Generally speaking, if the subsidy recedes, the competitiveness of products and brands that are more suitable for market demand will emerge, and the sales of those products that originally rely on policy promotion and policy subsidy will certainly decline.

"Subsidy withdrawal is the only way for the marketization of new energy automobile industry." In an interview with reporters, Qiu Chenyang said, "Any industry should grow independently and stand out in the market by its own competitiveness." Chen also said: "If new energy vehicles want to be completely marketized, they must cancel subsidies and be completely transformed into individual voluntary purchasing behavior under the guidance of the government. Of course, in the current market situation, subsidies also play an important role.

Challenges and opportunities are also facing challenges for the development of new energy vehicles, Chen Xie told reporters: "It is certain that the new energy vehicles will become the future trend, but the current focus should be shifted from terminal subsidies to the support of new technologies at the source, while accelerating the construction of new energy vehicles supporting infrastructure, so as to form a benign development closure. In order to make the new energy automobile industry sustainable development, we should eliminate the inferior production capacity.

Zhong Jun also told reporters: "For further development proposals, the first is to solve the charging problem. When new energy vehicles enter charging parking spaces such as communities, shopping malls, office parks, they should enjoy parking fees concessions. We should also encourage the construction of charging piles at gas stations in cities where conditions permit, and divide the facilities of charging piles into municipal public land. He further explained that another core issue is the standardization construction. At present, charging facilities of various platforms have different standards. Even some of the early charging piles did not fully implement the national standards, leading to the failure of charging or other safety incidents.

Zhu Luman stressed to reporters: "I think safety is the first thing to consider, because unlike other consumer goods, automobiles have very high safety requirements, followed by economic, convenient, technical and efficiency improvement." She further indicated that if we develop new energy vehicles according to market-oriented operation, we should take consumer demand as the main criterion to locate products, and abandon the policy, supply and demand system to plan the new energy vehicle industry.

In addition, whether from the industrial or technical point of view, new energy vehicles should follow their own development laws, and should not be accomplished overnight, and should gradually seek certain changes in the industry and policy. Of course, the needs of consumers and the market should be put in the first place. In terms of new energy vehicle market and policy, the experience of other countries is also worth learning.

In an interview with reporters, Qiu Chenyang said: "Germany's new energy automobile policy has performed well in the European market. The German government has promulgated several policies to promote the use of new energy automobiles, such as the National Electric Vehicle Development Plan, the Government's Plan for Electric Vehicles and the 2050 Climate Action Plan. The German government has also set targets for 1 million new energy vehicles by 2020 and 6 million new energy vehicles by 2030. For our country, I think it is the first choice to increase similar support in related fields.

"In the world, new energy vehicles are the most representative in Europe, America and Japan, but they are mostly concentrated in plug-in and oil-electricity mixtures, and their governments mostly use terminal subsidies and tax relief to guide market promotion. In the early stage, we have been using for reference, but we should adjust the direction in the future, blindly subsidizing will only lead to overcapacity, so that enterprises lose their hematopoietic function. If the policy is inclined to R&D and multi-industry chain enterprises, it may play a greater role. Chen finally said to reporters.

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